US Currency Forecast

There was instability of US dollar in 2008. It fell and rose unpredictably in 2008. According to Kathy Lien, there are some concerns about US dollar movement in 2009. First is that the US economy is predicted to hit bottom in 2009.” Non-farm payrolls declined by 533k in November, sending the unemployment rate to a 15 year high of 6.7 percent. With many US corporations forced to tighten their belts, the unemployment rate could rise as high as 8 percent. We expect this to happen because over the past 50 years on average, recessions have boosted the unemployment rate by 2.8 percent. When the current recession started in December, the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent. If you tack on 2.8 percent, that would drive the unemployment rate to at least 7.8 percent.” (“US Dollar 2009 Forecast”). Second is that US economy is likely to face the deflation, causes the US dollar to lose its value. “Since the beginning of the year annualized consumer price growth has fallen from 2.1 percent to 1.1 percent. The US economy has not officially hit deflation, but with commodity prices continuing to fall and consumer demand slumping, deflation will become a greater risk than inflation in the first half of 2009. However this may change in the second half as Quantitative Easing, fiscal stimulus and hopefully a weaker currency boosts inflation.” (“US Dollar 2009 Forecast”). Third is the effect of expansionary monetary policy and stimulus packages. They are likely to devaluate US dollar in other to recover the economy. “Like the Yen, Quantitative Easing exposes the US dollar to significant downside risks because the Federal Reserve is basically printing money and using that money to flood the market with liquidity, eroding the value of the dollar in the process” (“US Dollar 2009 Forecast”). Reference Kathy Lien. “US Dollar 2009 Forecast”. <http://www.actionforex.com/long-term/long-term-forecasts/us-dollar-2009-forecast-2008122673347/>

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