When dealing with currency forecasting, there are four criteria. Forecasters must meet at least one to be successful. First, you must have an exclusive use of a superior forecasting model. Second, have consistent access to information before other investors. The first two are merely intended for self correcting. Third, exploit small but temporary deviations from equilibrium. This criterion is how foreign exchange traders earn their living. Finally, be able to predict the nature of government intervention in the foreign exchange market. This last one may be the most important.